中英对照:中国历史上的战争同气候变化有关

中英对照:中国历史上的战争同气候变化有关
2007年07月24日10:09 来源：人民网科技
　　Climate change sparked historical wars in China
　　Cool periods in China, and the resulting scarcity of resources, are closely linked with a higher frequency of wars over the past 1000 years, according to Chinese researchers.

　　The research, which compared variations in climate with data from 899 wars in eastern China between 1000 and 1911, was published earlier this month (9 July) in the journal Human Ecology.

　　The finding that resource scarcity and shrinking agricultural output caused by changes in temperature is a major driver for war also applies to current society, says David Zhang, lead author from the Department of Geography at the University of Hong Kong.

　　Although Zhang did not analyse any warming periods, he believes extreme climate events ― both cold and hot ― could have a disastrous effect on the earth's ecosystem.

　　"It is more apparent that colder temperature would cause less crop production. However the ecosystem and agricultural production, once adapted to lower temperature, would surely be disturbed in a higher temperature today," he said.

　　Zhang believes that changes in ecosystems could lead to social, economic and political change, and could spark off wars. Historically, warfare has been a way of redistributing resources in response to climate change.

　　Wang Shaowu, from Peking University's Department of Atmospheric Physics, agreed that climate changes played an important role in the switch of dynasties and social revolutions in Chinese history.

　　He noted that drought and less precipitation, which do not always coincide with cold periods, were also significant factors affecting the agricultural production in countries like China.

　　According to Zhang, the finding also applies to ancient agricultural societies in other countries. For example, when the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) collapsed, other populated areas like Europe, Japan, Korea and the Ottoman Empire were also experiencing the most turbulent time in their history.

　　But according to An Chengbang, a research fellow with the Institute of Geography of Lanzhou University, both warming and cooling are long-term trends and the meteorological data collected during the past decades are not enough to accurately predict how global warming might influence agriculture.

　　Zhang also said in a "well-organized" society like today, we may not resort to warfare in the face of climate change, but instead may come up with more positive solutions.

　　"[We] may resort to technological development to increase the production," says Zhang.

　　Zhang said he will publish more findings on a global scale by the end of this year.

　　中国历史上的战争同气候变化有关
　　中国学者发现在中国一千多年的历史当中，冷周期所造成的资源短缺同战争的高频率爆发有着密切的联系。
　　该项研究对比了公元1000年至公元1911年间的气候变化情况，这段时期在中国东部爆发了899次战争。文章发表于7月9号的《人类生态学》杂志。
　　文章的第一作者、香港大学地质系的David Zhang认为气温变化导致的资源短缺和农业产量下降是战争的主要诱因，他说此项研究同样适用于当今的社会。
　　虽然David Zhang的研究没有分析暖周期的情况，但他认为极端天气事件，无论是变冷还是变暖，对地球生态系统都会造成灾难性影响。
　　“变冷会导致粮食产量的下降似乎更容易被人们接受。但是过去已经适应低温天气的生态系统和农业生产肯定要受到今天高温天气的影响，“他说。
　　David Zhang认为生态系统的变化会造成社会、经济、政治的变革，也会导致战争。历史上，重新进行资源分配的战争曾是人类社会应对气候变化的一种方式。
　　北京大学大气物理系的王绍武也认同气候变化对中国历史上的王朝更替和社会革命起着重要作用。但是他指出，干旱和降水量的减少对中国这样受季风影响的国家的农业生产也有着重要的影响，但它们不一定都是发生在冷周期。
　　David Zhang认为他的研究发现也同样适用于历史上的其它农业国家。例如，当明朝(1368-1644)灭亡的时候，其他人口聚居地，如欧洲、日本、韩国、奥托曼帝国，也同样经历着他们历史上最为动荡的年代。
　但是，兰州大学自然地理学研究所的研究员安成邦称，无论是变冷还是变暖，都是长期的趋势，而过去几十年收集的气象数据还不足以准确的预测全球变暖对农业生产到底有什么样的影响。
　　David Zhang还说在社会制度更为合理的今天，在面对气候变化的挑战时我们不必像古代人一样寻求战争，而是应发现更为积极的解决方案。
　　“我们可以发展科学技术，增加农业产出，”他建议。
　　David Zhang今年年底还会就他的题目发表另外一篇文章，该文章会扩展到全球范围的角度来讨论历史上战争与天气的关系。
　　感谢科学与发展网络 (SciDev.Net)惠赠赐稿
（责任编辑：张文君）