双语解读《哥本哈根协议》

chinadialogue

简报：《哥本哈根协议》

谭•科普塞

在经历了混乱的两周之后，188个国家最终在哥本哈根就共同努力继续降低温室气体排放以应对气候变化的问题达成了一份有条件的协议。
After two chaotic weeks, 188 countries reached a limited agreement in Copenhagen to continue global efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in order to address climate change.

本次会谈既不像确立了联合国应对气候变化进程的1992年里约大会那样正式，又不像缔结了具有法律约束力的《京都议定书》的1997年会谈那样成果卓著。各国领导人之间最后的会谈达到了史无前例的混乱局面；英国首相与发展中国家组织77国集团的首脑之间关于将协议比作是大屠杀进行充满了火药味的最后谈判；以及委内瑞拉女代表紧握拳头地试图引起人们注意。
The talks were quite unlike the more ceremonial proceedings at the 1992 conference in Rio that founded the United Nations climate-change process, and less fruitful than the 1997 negotiations that produced the legally binding Kyoto Protocol. The final, frantic negotiations featured unprecedented engagement between heads of state; an angry showdown between a British minister and the leader of the G77 group of developing nations over comparisons between the agreement and the Holocaust; and a bloody-fisted Venezuelan negotiator demanding that she be heard.

环境公民社会的很多成员对达成的《哥本哈根协议》表示不满。社会市场中心的马利尼•梅赫拉认为该协议“也许是现代的《慕尼黑协定》”，而当时正是由于这个绥靖战略才使纳粹德国吞并了捷克斯洛伐克的部分领土。旨在限制大气中温室气体的浓度的350.org网站的创始人比尔•麦克基本则认为该协议破坏了联合国。
Many members of environmental civil society reacted angrily to the deal, known as the “Copenhagen Accord”. Malini Mehra of the Centre for Social Markets suggested that it “may well prove to be the Munich Agreement of modern times”, referring to the appeasement strategy that allowed Nazi Germany to annex parts of Czechoslovakia. Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org – a campaign to limit atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases – suggested that the deal had destroyed the United Nations.

《哥本哈根协议》是一篇仅有1400多字的简短文件，其中对于具体细节及目标的叙述均十分有限。尽管该协议在很大程度上维护了1992年的《气候变化框架公约》的内容，但是却并不具有法律约束力。此外，该协议还反映了一个新的政治现实，那就是，无论是寻求实现《京都议定书》第二阶段的减排目标还是达成一个新的，具有约束力的哥本哈根协议目前都是不可能的。2007年在巴厘召开的气候会谈曾缔结了一份关于未来达成协议的路线图。由于《哥本哈根协议》仅仅是重复《巴厘行动计划》中设定的大部分目标，而不是就这些目标取得实质性进展，因此， 纽约大学国际合作中心的亚历克斯·埃文斯称其为“第二份巴厘协议”。
The Copenhagen Accord is a short document of around 1,400 words, limited in detail and ambition. Though it is largely in line with the text of the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, it is not legally binding. The agreement also reflects a new political reality in which the pursuit of either a second phase of the Kyoto Protocol or a new, legally-binding Copenhagen agreement now appears unlikely. The 2007 climate talks in Bali created a roadmap towards a future agreement. Alex Evans, of the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, has described the Copenhagen Accord as “Bali 2”, since it is limited to repeating many of the goals set out in the Bali Action Plan, in place of making progress on them.

尽管协议正式承认全球平均气温在工业化以前水平上升高的度数不应超过2摄氏度，但是却没有明确提出该目标是否能够实现。签署国“承诺到2020年实施……对整个经济进行可量化减排目标 ”。然而，这些目标却是由各国自主决定。例如，美中两国各自提出的减排目标就有可能使温升超过2摄氏度。
Though the accord formally recognises that average global temperatures should not be allowed to rise by more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, it is not substantial enough to suggest that such a goal is achievable. Signatories “commit to implement .... quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020”, but these targets are self-determined and the targets submitted by the United States or China, for instance, are likely contribute to warming of more than two degrees.

尽管如此，哥本哈根峰会在对发展中国家提供援助等方面还是取得了一些进展。发达国家向发展中国家提供“新的、额外的以及可预测的和充足的资金 ”用于帮助发展中国家降低排放、减少森林砍伐，以及促进技术的开发、转让与实施等。并将在2010年～2012年总共提供300亿美元的资金支持。发达国家还承诺到2020年再提供1000亿美元的支持。此资金中的很大一部分将通过新成立的哥本哈根绿色气候基金来发放。
Copenhagen saw some progress on providing finance to developing nations. “New and additional, predictable and adequate funding” will be provided to developing nations for emissions mitigation, reducing deforestation, technology development and transfer and adaptation. Up to US$30 billion will be provided between 2010 and 2012. Developed countries also committed to find a more substantial $100 billion by 2020. A significant portion of financing will flow through a newly established Copenhagen Green Climate Fund.

就对发展中国家采取的“在各自国家范围内的恰当行动”进行监控的问题，各方也做了相应的妥协。例如，中国就提出了其降低碳排放密度的目标。 而如何才能决定这些行动的可测量性、可报告性、可核实性（三可）是谈判过程中的难点。许多发展中国家，尤其是中国，对于其产业将要接受国际监督的前景表示担忧。协议虽然允许“在国内进行衡量、报告和审核”，但是，却要求“通过国家间沟通，以及国际磋商和分析”加以报告。
Compromise was also reached on the issue of monitoring the “nationally appropriate actions” taken on by developing nations – for instance, China’s target to reduce carbon intensity. Determining how these actions would be “measurable, reportable and verifiable” (MRV) was a sticking point in the negotiations. Many developing nations, particularly China, are wary of the prospect of intrusive international monitoring of industry. The accord allows for “domestic measurement, reporting and verification”, but requires that this be reported “through national communications, with international consultation and analysis.”

美中两国既是历史上给气候变化造成最大影响的国家，也是当前最大的排放国。而这两个国家也恰恰正是导致哥本哈根无法达成一个更具实质内容协议的根本原因。美方谈判员排除了他们或许可以接受高于目前正在参议院进行讨论的减排目标的可能性，尽管这些目标低于大多数发达国家的目标。中国则仍然既不同意2020年后对其排放设定上限，也不同意为其排放达到峰值设定一个目标年限。
The United States and China, the world's largest historical contributor to climate change and the world's largest current emitter, were at the heart of the failure to reach a more substantial agreement. Negotiators for the United States rejected the possibility that they might surpass the targets currently being debated in the senate – despite the fact these targets are considerably weaker than those of most developed country counterparts. China remained closed to the possibility that after 2020, the country might take on binding emissions caps – or that it should set a target for the year at which its emissions peak.

不是每个发展中国家都支持这一立场。图瓦卢，一个大部分领土不高过海平面一米的小岛国在哥本哈根峰会的第一周就上演了一场引人注目的干预。在其他小岛国的支持下，图瓦卢呼吁形成一个《哥本哈根条约》，条约包括很多高远的目标：将温室气体的大气浓度目标从政府间气候变化委员会建议的450ppm降至350ppm，以及温度上升不超过1.5摄氏度。中国拒绝了这一提议，因为这意味着将要求中国很快达到排放峰值。
Not every developing nation supported this position. Tuvalu, a small island nation – most of which is no more than one-metre above sea level – staged a dramatic intervention during the first week of the conference. Echoing the cries of other small island states, Tuvalu called for the formation of a “Copenhagen Protocol”, including ambitious targets to limit atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to 350 parts per million (ppm), as opposed to the 450ppm recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and temperature rise to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. China rejected this proposal as it would have required Chinese emissions to peak very soon.

在会议的最后几天，之前阵线统一的发展中国家之间进一步出现了裂痕。包括G77轮值主席国苏丹在内的一些国家以及若干拉美国家拒绝在协议上签字。古巴外交部长布鲁诺·罗德里格斯对协议作出了谴责，暗示协议是“傲慢”、“自大”的美国炮制的，中国则指责发达国家挑拨发展中国家之间的关系。但是，很明显，包括中国、印度、巴西和南非在内比较发达的发展中国家同比较脆弱的最不发达国家之间已经出现了明显的界线。这或许可以解释为什么美国总统奥巴马选择强调这些新兴经济体在帮助达成协议方面所能起到的至关重要的作用。
Further fractures between the previously aligned positions of developing nations became evident during the final days of the conference. A group of nations, including Sudan – which currently holds the presidency of the G77 – and a collection of Latin American nations refused to sign the accord. Cuban foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez denounced the accord, suggesting it was the work of an “imperial” and “arrogant” United States. China has since accused developed nations of “fomenting discord” among developing nations. But an obvious division has now emerged between the positions of more advanced developing nations – China, India, Brazil and South Africa – and the most vulnerable, least developed nations. This may explain why the US president Barack Obama chose to emphasise the crucial role that these emerging economies played in helping to reach a deal.

《哥本哈根协议》对《京都议定书》的未来意义重大。《京都议定书》允许国与国之间进行碳交易，并且包含了很多灵活的市场机制。与这一自上而下的、受法律约束的、而且是国际化的议定书不同，《哥本哈根协议》描绘出的是一个很大程度上是依靠自觉自愿的体系。如果《哥本哈根协议》在未来的几个月中被用做行动的基础，那么各国继续遵守《京都议定书》的前景可能就不那么乐观了。已经大幅度超出其京都目标的加拿大将没有什么动力去购买碳信用来抵消其碳增长，而拥有过剩碳信用的俄罗斯则会更加贫穷。
The accord had significant implications for the future of the Kyoto Protocol. It drew the contours of a largely voluntary system, quite unlike the top-down, legally binding and international Kyoto Protocol, which allowed emissions trading between states and included a variety of flexible market mechanisms. If the agreement is used as a foundation in the coming months, then the prospect of nations complying with the Kyoto Protocol is likely to recede. Canada, already drastically above its Kyoto target, will have little incentive to purchase credits to offset this rise. Russia, which holds a surplus of these credits, will be a lot poorer.

对那些继续在可再生能源领域和清洁技术领域寻找投资机会的投资者们来说，这也不是一个很好的协议。投资者们将面临各国气候变化政策大相径庭所导致的不确定局面。并由此滋生出不公平竞争的环境，将增加高碳行业向那些政策不够严厉的国家“泄漏”的可能性，同时也将增加一些国家向碳密集型进口产品征收关税的可能性。哥本哈根会谈后不久，碳价格降至六个月的最低点；国际排放交易的长期前景目前看起来十分暗淡。《哥本哈根协议》也会令那些寄希望于这次会谈能够对饱受争议的清洁发展机制进行改革或者扩展的人们感到困惑。
Neither is this a good deal for those seeking to invest in renewable energy or clean technologies. Investors are faced with an uncertain terrain of diverse national policies on climate change. This creates an uneven playing field and increases the possibility of high-carbon industries “leaking” to those countries with less stringent policies; and some countries imposing tariffs on carbon-intensive imports. Carbon prices fell to a six-month low shortly after the talks; the long-term outlook for international emissions trading now seems bleak. The accord will also frustrate those expected Copenhagen would see real progress on reforming or extending the much-criticised Clean Development Mechanism.

包括英国在内的一些国家已经开始寄希望于明年11月份在墨西哥城举行的下一届全球气候变化峰会能够将这一基本协议发展成为一份全面的、受法律约束的条约。但是如同负责这一过程的德博埃尔所说：“在迈向墨西哥的路上，我们还有很多工作要做。”下一步的工作在明年一月底就将接踵而至，在《哥本哈根协议》上签字的发达国家将被要求向联合国提交涉及其整体经济的排放目标。
Finally Some nations, including the United Kingdom, are looking toward the next global climate-change summit in Mexico City next November, in the hope there is an opportunity to turn this basic agreement into a full, legally-binding treaty. But as Yvo de Boer – the man in charge of the process – put it: “We have a lot of work to do on the road to Mexico.” The next step will come sooner, at the end of January, when the developed nations that signed the Copenhagen Accord are required to submit economy-wide emissions targets to the United Nations.

也许这并不令人奇怪，在一片批评与指责的声音中，德博埃尔是不多见的乐观派。他说：“我们从未目睹过如此众多的各国领导人聚集到一起为解决气候问题做出努力，尽管他们似乎很难[达成一个协议]，但是115个国家政府首脑还是选择来到哥本哈根，参与其中。这为我们将来的发展打下了基础。”但是对很多人来说，他们对这个协议本身还是心存疑虑，这个协议所打下的基础足够坚实吗？
Perhaps unsurprisingly, de Boer was a rare optimistic voice amid the clamour of blame and recrimination. “Never before have we seen so many world leaders gathered in the stride for the climate,” he said. “Even though it appeared to be very difficult [to get an agreement] 115 heads of state or governments chose to come to Copenhagen and engage. This is what we need to build on.” But for many, a question mark remains over the accord itself, and whether it is secure ground on which to build.

原文地址：http://www.chinadialogue.net/art ... e-Copenhagen-Accord
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